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Buyout, VC Firms Await Word Of Obama's Plans
VentureWire
By Shasha Dai and Russell Garland
November 7, 2008
As President-elect Barack Obama lays the groundwork for his administration,
buyout and venture investors alike are worried about higher taxes
and tighter regulation, although they are optimistic overall, hoping
to see a government that is more focused, less political, and a
friend to innovation.
Of course, it is too soon to tell how his presidency will be shaped
by larger forces -- as Obama said in his victory speech, the nation
faces the tremendous challenges of "two wars, a planet in peril,
the worst financial crisis in a century." It's also too early to
assess how he will seek to implement his economic and tax proposals.
Nonetheless, the long campaign has given the private equity and
venture industries a sense of what to expect from the new administration
and a Democrat-dominated Congress.
A major issue that is weighing on the minds of almost everyone
in the industry is widely anticipated tighter scrutiny over sectors
that are lightly regulated at present.
"I don't think the administration has a particular bias against
private equity as an ownership structure," said Bruce Morrison,
a former U.S. Congressman who now runs a lobbying firm. "But there
is significant concern over a lack of regulatory oversight in a
wide range of contexts."
Some aren't looking forward to this prospect. "In the end, this
is not great for private equity," said a middle-market PE firm
executive, who declined to be identified. "Any time you talk about
targeting Wall Street and all those nasty hedge funds and private
equity funds, everything gets thrown into one big pot...You tar
everybody with the same brush."
But Scott Sperling, co-president of Thomas H. Lee Partners, said
tighter regulation isn't necessarily a bad thing. Ultimately, intelligent
oversight will be conducive to restoring stability to the financial
system, which can only be beneficial to PE firms, he said.
"We need the government to understand the nature and level of
leverage," Sperling said. "If we don't have transparency, banks
don't trust each other, and the government will make poor judgments."
Another issue that has drawn some renewed attention from both
PE and VC professionals is possible changes in capital-gains tax
rates and taxation of carried interest. Taxation of carried interest
gains is widely expected to be back on Congress's agenda sometime
next year, as taxing carry as ordinary income has populist appeal.
Obama said during the campaign that he supports an end to the taxation
of carried interest at the lower capital gains rate. But addressing
that is likely to be part of a much larger tax package.
"It's our expectation that that's not going to get taken off the
table," said Scale Venture Partners Managing Director Kate Mitchell.
There could be some leeway on timing, though, depending on how
badly the economy slumps in the coming months. Mark Heesen, president
of the National Venture Capital Association, said there is division
among Democrats about whether to tackle tax reform while the economy
struggles or to wait until President Bush's tax cuts expire at
the end of 2010. "You don't have to force that process," he said.
Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flybridge Capital Partners,
said getting the economy moving is a bigger concern, even if higher
taxes on the wealthy are part of the plan. "If my tax rates go
up I assume it will be in an environment that will be such an improved
economic climate that we'll be paying taxes on higher income," he
said.
Buyout and venture professionals agree that the new administration
promises to bring fresh perspectives to multiple issues of direct
interest to the private equity industry, such as health care, infrastructure
and energy.
"Obama exhibited a calmer, cooler approach to the situation," THL's
Sperling said. "The change in administration gives us a chance
to have a much more analytical approach to identifying and solving
these problems."
Several venture industry leaders said they are hopeful that Obama
will bring to the White House an open mind, an understanding of
technology and a willingness to listen to entrepreneurs, although
they worry that political considerations could overly affect decisions.
"When you look at how professionally his campaign was run there
is great hope that policy will reign supreme," said the NVCA's
Heesen. Although Obama gets high marks for his ability to bring
people together, VCs worry that the loss of several moderate Republicans
and Democrats in Congress could make this harder.
Right out of the gate, venture investors are looking to the economic
stimulus package that Congress might pass this year to pump money
into projects such as modernizing the electric grid and extending
broadband Internet access throughout the country. Buyout firms,
meanwhile, hope that a stimulus package might translate into more
investment in infrastructure and the expansion of public-private
partnerships in funding such projects.
The Obama campaign has also outlined a $5 billion small business
rescue plan that might aid venture portfolio companies that run
into trouble in the current environment. Among other things, this
plan would set up an emergency lending plan for small businesses
to be financed by the Small Business Administration, whose budget
and capacity would be strengthened. It is unclear, however, if
the plan would extend to companies backed by venture firms or with
other sources of capital they could tap.
VC executives also expect Obama to push through an energy program
early in his term that will encourage development of renewable
energy sources. "But budget constraints and issues of tax policy
put some pretty difficult guardrails on what we're able to do," said
Trevor Loy, managing partner of Flywheel Ventures and adviser to
the Obama campaign on cleantech.
When it comes to taxes and the economy, the picture gets complicated,
and while the venture industry is enthusiastic about Obama promises
on such topics as tax breaks for start-ups, they want to see the
details. "I think this is going to be much more incremental and
take a lot longer than people would want based on the sweeping
electoral results," Loy said.
Although major reform of the health-care system probably will
have to wait until the economic crisis passes, Greeley said he
is looking for some smaller steps such as patent reform, more financing
for the National Institutes of Health and a more open-minded attitude
toward stem-cell research.
VCs also look for an easing of immigration restrictions on skilled
foreign workers, who are essential to many venture-backed companies.
Heesen said he hopes that the new Congress will make a distinction
between legal and illegal immigration. "The Republicans successfully
tied those two together," he said.

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