Most U.S. venture capitalists expect a rough year in 2009, with slowing investments, declining returns and a stagnant or worsening economy, according to a survey released Wednesday by the National Venture Capital Association.

They also predicted a rocky year for startups, which will have a harder time getting funding, and for their own ability to raise funds given the reduction in commitments to venture capital by institutional investors.

As a result, there likely will be fewer venture capital firms going into 2010.

Even clean technology, which was seen by nearly 70 percent of those surveyed as either growing or stable, will be challenged, according to Alan Salzman, the CEO of VantagePoint Venture Partners in San Bruno.

The tight capital markets will put pressure on clean-technology startups and will give well-funded traditional energy companies an edge, he said. He predicted that they will push to expand drilling.

"When Kennedy made his famous speech about putting a man on the moon, he didn't say maybe, or let's go halfway," Salzman said. "We need the equivalent of someone stepping up and saying ... let's cut off the addiction to foreign oil and get on with it."

Not all is gloom and doom, though. Several venture capitalists who spoke to the association expect strong demand for startups that can create good products in health care, personalized medicine, clean technology and security, especially under the new Obama administration, which is expected to boost federal investment in those areas.

Solid companies in the fields of life sciences, clean technology and information technology are cheaper than ever, Rory O'Driscoll, managing director of Scale Venture Partners in Foster City, told the venture capital association.

Several venture capitalists also said they expect their industry to emerge stronger as more marginal startups and investors are wiped out.

Indeed, the industry has been shrinking for years. Fundraising and investing peaked in 2000 and have yet to recover, even to the sharply reduced levels of 2001 after the dot-com bubble burst.

Through the first three quarters of this year, venture capitalists raised $25.4 billion and invested $22.6 billion, the lowest levels since 2005.

Exits so far are at pre-1998 levels, with 199 mergers or acquisitions in the first three quarters of 2008 and only six venture-backed initial public offerings.

The association surveyed more than 400 venture capitalists across the United States between Nov. 24 and Dec. 12.